Advanced Intelligence Analysis
(The LAMP Method)

Understanding the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP)

About the guidebook

In this guidebook, I draw on my direct training under LAMP’s creator, Col. Jonathan S. Lockwood, PhD (U.S. Army, Ret.), to explain how this actor-driven intelligence analysis method overcomes the limits of traditional forecasting, for example, the Delphi method, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method, and Indicators & Warning (I&W) frameworks (for more info, click here or read on).

It was originally released in 2010 and distributed by a number of organizations, but I have made some important updates. I have detailed not only how LAMP works, but now, also its practical challenges—especially the explosion of alternate futures—and how I have addressed these challenges through structured workflows and computerization for generating, filtering, and ranking scenarios. I have included full computer scripts (with a screenshot).

This booklet blends tradecraft, real analytic experience, and modern tools to offer a practical, insider’s guide to producing credible, decision-ready intelligence in complex, high-stakes environments.

What intelligence analysts will get from this manual:

• A clear, plain-language understanding of the LAMP method and why it matters.

• Insight into how LAMP differs from—and improves upon—traditional quantitative forecasting methods.

• Practical explanations of LAMP’s 12-step process and how it is applied in real-world analysis.

• An honest discussion of LAMP’s key challenges, including the explosion of alternate futures.

• Concrete solutions for managing complexity using computerization, automation, and full analytical scripts with a screenshot.

• Examples of how to generate, filter, and rank 'alternate futures' systematically.

• My insider’s perspective gained from my direct training under LAMP’s creator, Dr. Jonathan Lockwood.

• Guidance on producing intelligence that is credible, defensible, and decision-ready for policymakers.

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